Last updated 25 August 2026 — the IRI keeps the chance of El Niño at 100%; the next NOAA update follows on 10 September. El Niño has developed far faster this spring and summer than the models expected. The Niño3.4 index, the standard measure of the phenomenon’s strength, climbed from +0.47 °C in April to +2.03 °C in July. That put the index higher in July than in October 1997 and September 2015, the two strongest El Niños ever measured. The IRI puts the chance of El Niño this winter at 100% and notes that its own intensity scale no longer suffices: it stops at +2.0 °C, while 15 of the 26 models go beyond +3.0 °C. Does that automatically mean plenty of snow or a severe winter in the Alps? No. What it does and does not mean for your ski trip is set out below.
Will winter 2026/2027 be cold, mild, snowy or simply changeable? A concrete snow forecast for the Alps is not possible yet, but the most important climate factor has become exceptionally clear.
A lot has changed since the previous update of this article, and not in small steps.
The official monthly series from the Climate Prediction Center shows a steep climb: +0.47 °C in April, +0.94 in May, +1.55 in June and +2.03 in July. In four months the index went from just above neutral to the threshold for a very strong event. For comparison: in July 1997 the index stood at +1.27 and in July 2015 at +1.26, both a good half a degree lower than now. In the Niño1+2 region off the coast of South America the anomaly rises to +3.56 °C, and below the sea surface anomalies of up to +10 °C have been measured locally. The heat content of the upper layer of the Pacific was the highest in July since measurements began in 1979.
In its analysis of 13 August, NOAA raised the chance of a very strong El Niño in October to December from 81% to 95%. NOAA also calculates a 69% chance that the RONI index exceeds +2.5 °C, with a median of +2.66 °C. RONI is a variant of Niño3.4 that corrects for the global warming of the oceans, which makes it the fairest measure for comparing this event with 1982 or 1997. If that threshold is reached, this is the strongest El Niño since at least 1950.
The IRI published its monthly overview on 19 August and puts the chance of El Niño at 100% from August through February 2027. Of the 26 models, 25 place the event in the heaviest category. The IRI itself notes that this category falls short: the scale stops at +2.0 °C, while 15 models reach or exceed +3.0 °C. Worth adding: the record stands at +2.72 °C from November 2015. That has not been reached yet. The models point well beyond it, but until that peak actually arrives, "the strongest ever" remains an expectation rather than a fact.
The most important development for winter 2026/2027 is currently in the tropical Pacific. Sea water is warming there in the region that determines ENSO: the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. ENSO has three phases: El Niño, La Niña and neutral. During El Niño the sea water in parts of the central and eastern tropical Pacific is warmer than normal, while during La Niña it is colder. This ENSO cycle has a strong influence on weather patterns around the Pacific and, through changes in global air circulation, can also have consequences for Europe. For the Alps that influence remains indirect.
For Europe the influence of El Niño is less direct than in many areas around the Pacific. Other factors can amplify, alter or drown out the El Niño signal. Earlier El Niño winters have therefore produced widely diverging outcomes in Europe.
That cannot be predicted reliably yet. The fact that El Niño is exceptionally strong does not automatically mean Europe will get a severe winter, nor that the Alps face a snowy or a snow-poor season. The average across a whole season also says little: a relatively mild winter can contain several cold and snowy weeks, and a cold winter can have long dry spells with hardly any fresh snow. The honest state of play: winter 2026/2027 has an exceptionally powerful climate signal, but no reliable snow forecast for Europe or the Alps yet.
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The ENSO cycle is one of the most important natural climate fluctuations on earth. Every three to seven years the water temperature of the central and eastern tropical Pacific changes. These are temperature swings of 1 to 3 °C, warmer or colder. During El Niño the sea water in parts of the central and eastern tropical Pacific is warmer than average. That affects tropical rainfall patterns, air pressure and wind. Through changes in global air circulation this can ultimately have consequences for regions thousands of kilometres away.
El Niño events often reach their greatest strength around the end of the calendar year. That makes the current development interesting for winter 2026/2027. The event is expected to keep growing into the period when the ski season gets going.
For skiers and snowboarders the follow-up question matters most: how does a global climate signal like this translate into snow in the Alps? There is no simple answer. For Europe the influence remains indirect and dependent on other factors, such as the NAO, the jet stream, developments in the stratosphere and the position of high and low pressure systems.
There is no fixed El Niño outcome for the Alps. Earlier El Niño winters turned out very differently across Europe. The influence can also be amplified or weakened by the NAO, the jet stream and the pressure distribution over the Atlantic. For northern Europe, El Niño is on average associated with a greater chance of mild, wet and windy weather in autumn and early winter. Later in the winter the chance of calmer and colder weather can increase. This is not a specific forecast for the Alps, and certainly no guarantee that winter 2026/2027 will follow this pattern. For skiers the following opportunities and risks are the relevant ones.
El Niño is not automatically good or bad for skiing. The biggest opportunity is that humid periods deliver plenty of snow when there is enough cold air around. The main risk is that the same precipitation falls as rain in lower ski resorts during mild phases.
The latest long-range models and updates from international climate services point in the same direction: El Niño is exceptionally strong and still growing. For Europe and the Alps the exact effect remains uncertain.
In short: the models agree on the strength of El Niño, but not yet on what exactly that means for snow, cold and winter weather in the Alps.
"Very strong" refers to the temperature anomaly of the sea water in the tropical Pacific. It does not automatically mean that the consequences for Europe or the Alps are very strong too.
In short: El Niño can become very strong, but the consequences for snow and winter weather in the Alps remain uncertain.
Alongside El Niño, the NAO matters for Europe and the Alps. NAO stands for North Atlantic Oscillation and describes the air pressure difference between the area around Iceland and the high pressure near the Azores.
With a positive NAO the westerly winds over the Atlantic are often stronger. North-west Europe then sees mild, wet and windy conditions more often. For the Alps this can bring more precipitation systems, but the snow line can also sit relatively high because of the mild ocean air.
With a negative NAO the westerly winds are often weaker. High pressure blocks can then let cold air flow towards Europe from the north or east. That increases the chance of wintry spells, but only when enough moisture reaches the Alps at the same time.
El Niño may set the global background, but the NAO helps determine where cold air and precipitation systems end up over Europe. So the NAO becomes an important factor for the Alps later this year. El Niño can provide the broad backdrop, but the NAO has a big say in whether the winter in Europe turns out mild, wet, cold, dry or snowy.
The polar vortex also comes up often in winter forecasts. The polar vortex is a strong wind circulation high in the stratosphere around the North Pole. In some winters this vortex is disrupted or weakened, as it was last winter. That can later affect the pressure distribution and the chance of cold air outbreaks towards Europe. The effect is not immediate, however, and a weakened polar vortex guarantees no cold in the UK or the Alps.
For winter 2026/2027 the ECMWF seasonal models point to an increased chance that the vortex is disrupted in December or January. In very strong El Niño winters such a disruption in mid-season happens more often than average. Two circumstances play a part, and they do not point the same way.
The QBO is in its westerly phase. The QBO is a wind pattern high above the equator that reverses direction roughly every two years. In the current westerly phase the vortex is usually more stable, which points towards milder and wetter for Europe, with the snow further north than average.
Sea ice around Svalbard is at a record low. There is exceptionally little ice in the Barents and Kara Seas. Research links exactly that area to a weaker polar vortex later in the winter. The connection is not certain, but it points the opposite way to the QBO.
That contradiction is precisely why nobody can make a reliable statement about January right now. What is certain: more forces are in play this year than usual, and that increases the chance of an erratic winter with swings in both directions.
For the Alps it is not yet possible to say whether winter 2026/2027 will be predominantly snowy, mild, cold or changeable. El Niño makes certain large-scale developments possible, but does not determine which weather pattern ultimately forms over Europe. We can sketch the first scenarios, though. Based on the August seasonal run, scenario 1 is currently the most likely: mild, wet and south-westerly. The other three remain possible, especially if the polar vortex is disrupted in December or January.
When a mild westerly flow develops, precipitation systems can reach the Alps regularly. That does not automatically produce snow everywhere. It can rain in lower valleys while plenty of snow falls higher up. High-altitude ski resorts clearly benefit more than lower ones in such a pattern. Areas with many slopes above 2000 metres and glaciers have the advantage. See high-altitude ski resorts with many slopes above 2000 metres ›››
When precipitation systems reach the Alps from the north-west and there is enough cold air, the northern Alps can enjoy snowy spells. That is especially interesting for parts of Austria, Switzerland and the French northern Alps. The exact snow distribution depends on wind direction, temperature and the position of the various mountain ranges. See ski resorts in the northern Alps
With high pressure blocking over the Atlantic or northern Europe, cold air can flow more easily into the Alps from the north or east. That increases the chance of a low snow line and wintry conditions in the valleys. Plenty of fresh snow does require a well-positioned precipitation system as well. Cold weather can therefore also be sunny and dry.
With south-westerly or southerly flows, humid air can be forced up against the southern side of the Alps. Ski resorts in Italy, the southern French Alps and parts of Switzerland can then get plenty of snow. At the same time the föhn can develop on the northern side. There it turns milder, drier and sometimes stormy. Ski resorts in the southern Alps
A concrete snow forecast per country for winter 2026/2027 is not possible yet. There are already points to watch per ski country, though, for anyone currently looking at Austria, France, Switzerland, Italy or Germany.
For Austria, flows from the north-west are often important, especially for the northern side of the Alps. Ski resorts in Vorarlberg, Tyrol, Salzburgerland and parts of Styria can get plenty of snow during a Nordstau. During mild westerly phases altitude matters more. Glaciers and high-altitude ski resorts are then the safer choice. Snow-sure ski resorts in Austria
France has the advantage of many high-altitude ski resorts. In the French Alps in particular, many villages and slopes sit at considerable height. That helps when the winter is changeable and relatively mild. The French northern Alps benefit more often from north-westerly snow situations, while the southern French Alps depend more on systems from the south or south-west. Snow-sure ski resorts in France
The Italian Alps depend more often on southerly flows. In a winter with a lot of westerly and north-westerly weather the southern side can turn out drier. With a southerly stau or Genoa lows, however, plenty of snow can fall. The Dolomites also have extensive snowmaking, which can provide an important base in changeable winters. Snow-sure ski resorts in Italy
Thanks to its central position, Switzerland has several snow scenarios. The northern side can benefit from a Nordstau, while Valais and Graubünden sometimes do well with other flows instead. Altitude and position play a big role, certainly when the snow line rises temporarily. Snow-sure ski resorts in Switzerland
The German ski resorts sit lower than many other areas and are therefore more sensitive to mild phases and a high snow line. The best snow chances are usually in the higher areas, such as the Zugspitze, Garmisch-Classic, Oberstdorf/Kleinwalsertal and parts of the Bavarian Forest and the Black Forest. In Winterberg and the Sauerland, cold nights, snowmaking and timing are extra important.
A long-range forecast is no reason to write off a country or ski resort completely. When booking early, though, you can factor in how vulnerable a destination is.
For Christmas and New Year altitude is extra important. For January and February the snow base is often better, but even then the snow line remains decisive. Snow-sure ski resorts for a Christmas ski trip
Many people looking at this winter forecast also want to know the snow chances closer to home. It is too early for that. El Niño makes winter 2026/2027 meteorologically interesting, but it does not directly determine whether snow falls in the UK.
For snow in the UK, cold air, precipitation and timing have to coincide precisely. The position of high pressure systems, the NAO and the supply of cold air from the north or east matter more for that than El Niño alone. In the Scottish Highlands, around the Cairngorms, Glencoe and Nevis Range, the chance of snow is structurally higher than in the rest of the country simply because of altitude.
A very strong El Niño can influence clear weather patterns worldwide, but the effect on the UK is indirect. Even if winter 2026/2027 is mild on average, the UK can still get a few wintry days or a spell of snow. Conversely, a cold month is no guarantee that much snow will fall.
Alongside modern weather models we also look at the 100-year calendar. That calendar is historically interesting, but it is not a scientific weather forecast. It was developed in the 17th century by Mauritius Knauer and is based on the idea that the weather picture repeats every few years. Among other things he looked at the position of the sun, the moon and the planets. 2026 is a Mercury year and 2027 a Moon year.
Worth remembering: this winter forecast is based on current models and climate drivers such as ENSO, the NAO, seasonal models, the jet stream and, later in the season, the polar vortex. The 100-year calendar is mainly a light-hearted addition. Note that the calendar contradicts the modern models on important points: where the 100-year calendar predicts a persistently cold January, the seasonal models point to a mild, wet winter instead. We base our forecast on the models.
The coming months will be important. This article is updated at each of the moments below.
Siberian snow cover in October is the most interesting of these. If a lot of snow settles early on the Eurasian continent, that increases the chance of a weaker polar vortex and therefore of cold outbreaks later in the winter. More than El Niño itself, that is the indicator to keep an eye on.
The winter forecast for 2026/2027 has moved a long way in a short time. El Niño is no longer a possibility but an exceptionally strong fact: in July the Niño3.4 index already stood at +2.03 °C, higher than in October 1997 and September 2015. NOAA gives a 95% chance of a very strong phase around the turn of the year, and the IRI puts the chance of El Niño this winter at 100%.
On the basis of El Niño it is therefore still impossible to say whether winter 2026/2027 will be good or bad for skiing. The NAO, the jet stream, regional pressure distribution and wind direction will give a clearer picture later this year. Until then, altitude, snow reliability and flexibility remain the key considerations for anyone booking early.
Finally, a few practical tips:
