Last updated 8 October 2026 — El Niño hit a record in September: +2.84 °C, the highest monthly value since 1982. What will winter 2026/27 be like? The seasonal models point to a mild, wet winter in Europe with a high snow line: plenty of snow above 1800 to 2000 metres, more rain in the valleys. A cold winter isn’t ruled out, but there’s no reliable month-by-month snow forecast yet. Here’s what we know now, and what it means for your ski holiday.
El Niño has hit a record, but that tells us little yet about snow in the Alps. Where things stand on 8 October:
The official monthly series from the Climate Prediction Center shows a steep climb: from +0.47 °C in April to +2.84 °C in September. That is the highest monthly value since the series began in 1982. The previous record of +2.72 °C had stood since November 2015. And the peak is still to come: it usually arrives in November or December.
On 8 October, NOAA raised the odds of a historic El Niño, stronger than any since 1950, for October to December from 75% to 83%. At the end of September, all 22 models tracked by the IRI expected El Niño to strengthen further, with a 100% chance of El Niño through to February 2027.
If you look the figures up yourself: NOAA uses a different reference period and gives +2.1 °C for September. The record applies to the CPC monthly series. On NOAA’s own RONI yardstick, which strips out the warming of the world’s oceans, the historic threshold hasn’t been crossed yet.
It’s too early to say. El Niño is a warming of the sea in the tropical Pacific. It reshapes air circulation around the globe, but its influence on Europe is indirect. Previous strong El Niño winters played out very differently in the Alps.
On average, El Niño goes hand in hand with a mild, wet and windy autumn and early winter in northern Europe. Later in the winter, the chances of calmer, colder weather go up. That’s an average, not a promise.
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Copernicus sees higher odds of a milder winter across almost all of Europe, and of a wetter one across large parts of it. For the Alps, that mainly means plenty of precipitation but a high snow line. Higher up, that can bring a lot of snow while it rains in the valleys.
Alongside El Niño, the NAO does most to decide how winter plays out in Europe. It’s the difference in air pressure between Iceland and the Azores. When the NAO is positive, strong westerlies blow in: mild, wet and a fairly high snow line. When it turns negative, cold air from the north or east can break through, with a chance of snow down to the valleys. But only if there’s precipitation as well.
The polar vortex is the ring of winds high above the North Pole. When it’s disrupted, polar air can spill south. ECMWF sees raised odds of that happening around late December and January, and it happens more often than average in very strong El Niño winters.
Two factors pull in opposite directions, though. The QBO, a wind pattern high above the equator, is in its westerly phase, which usually keeps the vortex stable. The record-low sea ice in the Barents and Kara Seas points to a weaker vortex instead. That’s why nobody can say anything reliable about January yet.
Based on the August and September seasonal runs, scenario 1 currently looks the most likely. The other three remain possible, especially if the polar vortex is disrupted.
Weather systems from the west bring plenty of snow higher up and rain in the valleys. High-altitude resorts and glaciers stand to gain most. Resorts with plenty of slopes above 2000 metres ›››
If the precipitation comes in from the north-west and it’s cold enough, the northern Alps get snowy spells, as moist air piles up against the northern side of the range. Think Vorarlberg, Tyrol, the Salzburgerland, northern Switzerland and the northern French Alps.
A blocking high can steer cold air into the Alps and bring the snow line right down. Without a weather system to deliver precipitation, though, it simply stays dry and sunny.
With a southerly flow, most of the snow falls in Italy, the southern French Alps and southern Switzerland. On the northern side, the föhn, a warm, dry downslope wind, then keeps things mild and dry.
A firm forecast per country isn’t possible yet. But each ski nation has its own strengths and weak spots.
Austria does best in north-westerly patterns, which can dump a lot of snow on the northern side of the Alps. In mild spells, glaciers and high-altitude resorts are the safest choice.
Many French resorts and pistes sit high up, which is an advantage in a mild, changeable winter. The northern Alps benefit from north-westerlies, the southern French Alps from systems coming up from the south.
The Italian Alps need southerly flows. In a winter dominated by westerlies they can end up drier, but the Dolomites have extensive snowmaking to fall back on.
Thanks to its central position, several scenarios work in Switzerland: the north side with Nordstau, Valais and Graubünden more often with other patterns.
Germany’s ski areas sit lower and are more exposed to mild spells. The best chances are at altitude, on the Zugspitze and in Oberstdorf and the Kleinwalsertal. In Winterberg and the Black Forest, it comes down to cold nights and snowmaking.
On 10 September, winter gave a preview of how this works. Sölden reported 20 centimetres of fresh snow at 3,000 metres, while there was nothing at 2,315 metres. A few days later, everything below 2,500 metres had gone again. That gap of a few hundred metres is exactly what this winter looks set to turn on.
It’s far too early to say, and a white Christmas can only really be called about ten days out. Snow in the UK needs cold air, precipitation and timing to line up, and the NAO and cold air from the north or east matter far more for that than El Niño. The best odds, as ever, are in the Scottish Highlands, at Cairngorm, Glencoe and the Nevis Range.
The 100-year calendar, drawn up by Abbot Mauritius Knauer in the 17th century, isn’t a scientific forecast, but it’s a bit of fun. 2026 is a Mercury year, 2027 a Moon year. One caveat: the calendar predicts a bitterly cold January, while the models point to a mild, wet winter.
El Niño hit a record in September and is still growing. What that means for snow in the Alps will depend on the NAO, the jet stream and the polar vortex over the coming months. Until then, the advice for early bookers is simple: go high, go snow-sure and stay flexible.
