Experts on the future of winter sports: 'It will be different, but we're not too late'

In short

• With 4 degrees of warming, 60 to 80 percent less snow falls at 2,000 metres; with 1.5 degrees, it is 10 to 20 percent.
• Lower-lying ski resorts are already feeling the effects.
• The French Grand Massif (including Flaine) is moving lifts and wants to open for longer outside the ski season.
• Two thirds of the CO2 emissions of your ski holiday come from the journey.
• According to the experts it is not too late, but action is needed quickly.

Altitude matters more and more

At ISPO, the major sports trade fair that is taking place at the RAI in Amsterdam for the first time this year, a panel discussed the future of winter sports. Ben Aidan of Protect Our Winters (POW) Europe outlined two scenarios. If the planet warms by 1.5 degrees, 10 to 20 percent less snow falls at 2,000 metres. With 4 degrees of warming, it is 60 to 80 percent less.

Lower resorts already feel the impact

"In ski resorts around 500 to 1,000 metres, the impact is already big today," said Aidan. "We all see it." If you want snow-sure skiing, the altitude of a resort is becoming more and more important.

Flaine and the Grand Massif are preparing

According to Aidan, 95 percent of ski resorts are still carrying on as always. A small but growing group is making plans. As an example he mentioned the Grand Massif in France, the ski area that includes Flaine, Samoëns and Les Carroz. The resort knows to within 100 metres where there will still be snow in the coming years.

A plan up to 2035

Based on that, it has drawn up a plan until 2035. Lifts will disappear or move to places with better snow, the ski school meeting point is moving and the resort wants to be open ten instead of nine months a year. French media report that the number of lifts will go from 51 to 41. For skiers, this means the slopes remain, but the resort is changing.

Heated discussions

Locally, that led to heated discussions. A family that has run a restaurant on the slopes for sixty years heard that their lift will be gone in ten years. "After two hours of shouting, the owner said: thank you, now at least I have ten years to prepare," Aidan said.

The journey makes the biggest difference

POW also showed where the CO2 emissions of a week of skiing come from. Two thirds come from the journey to the mountains, around 12 percent from your equipment and just 2 percent from the ski lifts. The mode of transport makes a big difference. Travel by train and bus and your emissions are seventeen times lower than by plane. Driving alone is the least favourable choice. Sharing a car with four people already saves more than two thirds.

Industry as part of the solution

"If the industry is the problem, the industry is also a big part of the solution," said Aidan. According to him, that applies to ski resorts and brands, but also to the way we go on our ski holidays.

Skiers are hesitating

Nick Sargent of the American industry association SIA saw how American skiers reacted to a poor snow winter. More than one in ten gave up a planned ski holiday, and almost a quarter expect to go less often because of the changing weather. "People look at their wallet. Do I go, or do I book a beach holiday?"

Flexibility pays off

At the same time, a quarter actually want to travel more often to places with better conditions. If you are flexible about destination and travel dates, you have the best chance of good snow.

Making snow from clouds

Garrett Schabb of the American company Rainmaker talked about cloud seeding. Drones fly into a cloud and release tiny particles, causing the cloud to release snow. The technique has existed since 1946. Rainmaker mainly works in the US state of Utah. How much extra snow it really produces is still debated among scientists. Schabb himself was clear that it is no miracle cure.

Too late? No

Asked whether it is already too late, Aidan was clear. "No. Winter is going to be different, but we can absolutely slow it down. We just have to avoid ending up in the worst scenario." He does believe winter sports must remain affordable to keep young people on board. In America, too, younger generations are skiing less, Sargent observed.

About ISPO

ISPO is one of the world's largest trade fairs for the sports and outdoor industry. After more than fifty years in Munich, the fair is taking place at the RAI in Amsterdam for the first time this year, from 3 to 5 November. Manufacturers, retailers, ski resorts and organisations from across the winter sports world present their new products there and discuss the trends for the coming seasons.